The numbers tell two very different stories about the Phillies right now. Following the game on Friday night, Fangraphs had put the Phillies’ odds of making the playoffs at 71.7%. That looks like a safe bet for October. But Baseball Reference was a bit different, giving them a 38.9% of making it to October. That’s a huge gap between two major sites. One says the team is almost in. The other says they are in serious trouble. This split shows why you need to pick your source and stick with it.
Why the gap matters so much
Getting to the playoffs is the supposed goal of each team in major league baseball. As the season wears on, the odds each of them have of making the postseason fluctuate each day depending on the streak that each particular team goes on. While one would think those odds would remain somewhat static across different medias, we know that this isn’t true. The difference between a 71.7% chance and a 38.9% chance changes how fans feel. It changes how you watch the game. You might feel safe on Friday, but the other number makes you sweat. You can’t trust both numbers at the same time. You have to choose.
Per The Good Phight, the question for today is which projection system you pay attention to the most. Perhaps you’re a ZiPS person or a PECOTA aficionado. BP has them at 76% chances of making it. That’s an even higher number than Fangraphs. But there has to be one that you kind of lean on when looking at the future. If you watch three different sites, you end up confused. You need a baseline. You need to know what the model thinks is real.
Who do you trust with the data?
The stats are clear, but the path is not. The team faces the Washington Nationals in the data from April 07, 2024, and the odds shift daily. A player like Alec Bohm might look at an iPad in the dugout, but the fans are looking at screens too. The data drives the conversation. If you follow the 38.9% number, you expect a crash. If you follow the 76% number, you expect a run. The truth is likely in the middle, but the models force a choice. You must decide which math makes sense to you. Do you trust the big picture or the small details? The answer defines your season.
Handling the stress of the long season is what’s really on the line here, beyond just the raw stats. When the streak breaks, the odds drop. When the team wins, the odds rise. The sites agree on the trend, but they disagree on the size of the jump. That’s where the real debate starts. Do you believe the team can pull off a miracle, or do you think the math says no? The data is out there. The choice is yours.
